Bond Pilot AI
Context: AAPL 3.950% 08/08/2032 · Hartwell Capital
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Conversation
BP
I've loaded AAPL 3.950% 08/08/2032 with your Hartwell Capital portfolio. I'm a fixed-income AI — ask me anything about this bond, your portfolio risk, rate scenarios, or fair value.
Is this bond fairly priced? What's the rate risk at +50 bps? How does it fit my portfolio? Compare to Treasuries
JH
Is this bond fairly priced given current spreads, and should I add to my position?
BP
AAPL 3.950% 2032 is trading slightly rich to fair value:
Fair Value Analysis
Market Price96.12
Model Fair Value94.80
Rich / CheapRich +1.32 pts
OAS Spread+68 bps
Sector Avg OAS+54 bps
Spread vs Sector+14 bps wide
OAS of +68 bps is 14 bps wider than sector avg — partially offsets richness.
JH
What's the rate risk if the Fed hikes 50 bps, and does it fit my current duration target?
BP
At +50 bps, this position loses −$3,107 per $100K. Portfolio fit:
Rate Shock & Portfolio Fit
Modified Duration6.21 yrs
DV01 (per $1M face)$621
+50 bps P&L ($100K)−$3,107
Portfolio Avg Duration6.24 yrs
Duration Impact if Added−0.03 yrs ✓
Adding $25K more is duration-neutral. Wait for pullback to 95.50–95.80 for better entry.
Show me comparable bonds What if rates fall 25 bps?
Bond Snapshot
SecurityAAPL 3.950% 08/08/32
RatingAA+
Price96.12
YTM4.55%
Mod Duration6.21 yrs
DV01$621 / $1M
OAS+68 bps
Convexity0.48
Bond Pilot Signals
Value
42
Carry
74
Momentum
61
Rate Risk
58
Port Fit
88
⚡ Conditional Buy — Wait for Better Entry
Suggested Actions
📋 Add to watchlist at target 95.65
📊 Run full portfolio shock
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